After AMLO: The Economic, Security, and Political Outlook for Mexico in 2024

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known widely by the initials AMLO, aimed to transform the politics, economy, and security of Mexico. He calls his wide-ranging series of reforms the “fourth transformation,” placing it on par with other great moments in Mexican history: Mexico’s independence, the Mexican Revolution, and the founding of the modern Mexican state. AMLO is nothing if not ambitious, envisaging himself in the same echelon as Mexico’s national heroes Benito Juárez, Porfirio Díaz, and—AMLO’s personal favorite—Lazaro Cárdenas. But as his sexenio—Mexico’s six-year presidential term—ends and AMLO has no possibility for reelection, it is time to take stock of his legacy. A full accounting of what Mexico has experienced and what kind of Mexico AMLO will leave his successor is in dire order. What will Mexico look like in 2024?

In short, Mexico in 2024 looks economically stagnant despite the once-in-a-generation opportunity presented by nearshoring. The nation is weak and debilitated in its fight against ruthless and expanding cartels and limping more than sprinting as democratic institutions continue to suffer debilitating attacks. Overall, the Mexico of 2024 appears far more battered and bruised than the Mexico AMLO took the reins of in 2018.

This report was made possible by general support to CSIS. No direct sponsorship contributed to this report.